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Financial Newsletter 2025.07.04

Trump's Shockwave: A Radical Bill, a Divided Party, and a Remade America Trump's Shockwave: A Radical Bill, a Divided Party, and a Remade America Tariffs, Bills, and Negotiations The Trump administration could begin sending letters to a dozen countries as early as this Friday, unilaterally setting the tariff rates they will be required to pay. This "act first, negotiate later" approach comes as the final deadline for negotiations looms on July 9. President Trump appears to have grown tired of tedious, country-by-country talks, preferring the straightforward approach of simply sending out "bills." This maximum pressure campaign is already making some nations uneasy. On Wednesday, for instance, the U.S. announced a deal with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a staggering 40% ...

Financial Newsletter 2025.07.04

Trump's Shockwave: A Radical Bill, a Divided Party, and a Remade America Trump's Shockwave: A Radical Bill, a Divided Party, and a Remade America 关税风暴与贸易谈判 特朗普政府最快可能在本周五开始向十几个国家发出信函,单方面设定它们需要支付的关税税率。这种“先斩后奏”的方式,是在7月9日谈判最终截止日期临近之际采取的。特朗普总统似乎已经厌倦了与各国繁琐的谈判,更喜欢直接寄出“账单”的简单方式。 这种极限施压已经让一些国家感到不安。例如,本周三美国宣布与越南达成协议,对越南出口商品征收 20% 的关税,对被认定为绕道越南以规避其他关税的商品征收高达 40% 的关税。此举明显是针对供应链转移。虽然这个税率低于最初威胁的46%,但仍远高于之前10%的普遍水平。 有趣的是,尽管协议细节尚未公布,这一消息却促使在越南设厂的美国制造商股价上涨。看来,资本市场对确定性的渴望,已经战胜了对关税本身的恐惧。 然而,更严峻的挑战还在后面。与欧盟、日本、韩国等主要贸易伙伴的艰难谈判仍在进行中。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩坦言,7月9日前达成最终协议是 “不可能的” 。双方目前的目标仅仅是达成一个框架性的“原则性协议”。 欧盟贸易专员目前正在华盛顿进行穿梭外交。他们似乎愿意接受普遍10%的关税,但希望为钢铁、汽车等已被高关税打击的行业争取豁免。德国总理弗里德里希·默茨尤其焦虑,因为德国...